The 20th century has been the Century of Oil.

How would you describe the 20th century? A variety of descriptive names might be used: the Century of Telecommunication, the Century of the Automobile and Airplane, or the Century of Modern Wars. But the most typical way of describing it is the Century of Oil.
Over several millions of previous years, humankind transmitted its civilizations with fuel acquired mainly from the forest. But human civilization began to make especially great progress at the end of the 18th century, when the Industrial Revolution gave people a new source of energy in the form of fossil fuel, that is, coal. And in the 20th century, another new form of energy, oil, which is an incredibly convenient fuel, has taken the place of coal. This new fuel has made it possible to create our modern civilization, in which automobiles and airplanes are used across the globe, electricity is put to use in virtually all countries, and a variety of plastic products have become necessities of life.

The amount of the world's remaining oil reserves is equal to 1/8 of the volume of Mt. Fuji.

In only 100 years, humans have created a society that is heavily dependent on oil. Now, we have begun to wonder whether oil will gush out forever, and to ask how much oil remains in the earth.
Opinions vary regarding the volume of unexploited oil, but the current confirmed volume of exploitable oil reserves is said to be 1 trillion barrels, that is, 160 billion kiloliters (kl). If this volume of oil is divided by 2,000 kilocalories (kcal) of ecological volume, the result will be 740 trillion eu, equivalent to the amount of food that the world's 5.8 billion people are likely to consume in 350 years. You might think that 1 trillion barrels is a huge volume, but if we liken Mt. Fuji to an upside-down sakazuki (sake cup) and turn it right-side up, Earth's remaining oil is equal only to 1/8 of the volume of the cup, or the halfway point in the climb to the top of the mountain.

In 43 years...

If we divide 1 trillion barrels by the annual global production volume of crude oil (about 23 billion barrels), we get an idea as to how long unexploited oil remains. Assuming that the production standard will be the same in the future, oil will be exploitable for 43 years. Of course, the volume of oil noted here is that of confirmed exploitable oil reserves. And in the past the period possible for oil exploitation has been extended further and further, like a mirage on a road, because of such developments as the discovery of new sources of oil or the improvement of digging and removal technologies. Related to this, the Roman Club's Limitation of Growth, a book published in 1972, which criticized modern civilization for its wasteful use of resources, said that oil could be exploited only for 21 more years (a number obtained based on 1970 data, taking into account an expected increase in consumption. The book also states that even if the exploitable oil reserves were five times higher than the then-estimated level, oil would be exploitable for only 50 more years.) Although 21 years have passed since that book was published, and although annual consumption has increased, oil still is available.

If the situation continues like this, and if the period for oil exploitation is extended much further, we might not have to worry so much about an oil shortage. But because oil is a fossil fuel, it is certain that the supply of oil will end someday. Sooner or later, no matter how hard our efforts, we will reach the limit, and almost certainly so within 100 years. Will the end of oil mean the end of human civilization? With global warming and other environmental problems, we might have little time to create a new civilization.

(Notes and sources)

Resource Statistics:

Data is based mainly on the 1997 Statistical Outline of Energy and the Economy, edited by EDMC (The Energy Data and Modeling Center) and published by the Energy Conservation Center. It is estimated that natural gas can be the exploited for 65 more years and coal (including low-grade types) for 228 years. All the statistics are current as of the end of 1995. Conversion into eu is made based on the assumption that 1 liter of crude oil is equal to 9,250 kcal.

Mt. Fuji (app. 3,776m; the highest mountain in Japan, and very famous worldwide due to its beautiful shape)

We have referred to materials of the New Energy Foundation. Also, according to the home page of the city of Fuji-Yoshida, Shizuoka Prefecture, Mt. Fuji's volume is approximately 1,400 km3, that is, about 8.8 trillion barrels. The anxiety of Japanese people could be mitigated to some extent if another point of reference is used: 1/8 of Mt. Fuji is nearly equivalent to 6 times the volume of Lake Biwa, which is the largest lake in Japan (27.5 km3, or 0.17 trillion barrels).

Limitation of Growth: (translation supervised by Saburo Okita; published by Diamond, Inc.):

Earth in the Year 2000, based on a report of the United States government, published by the Ie-No-Hikari Association, says that it will take 58 years to consume 80 percent of the remaining oil, taking into account an expected increase in consumption.

"we might have very little time to create a new civilization":

If our current civilization survives until oil is completely exploited, there will be no problem in energy consumption before the current generation, which includes me, the author of this material, passes away. But if concern arises regarding the drying up of the planet's oil reserves in the foreseeable future, the situation regarding the supply of oil will be unstable. As I said at the beginning of this material, the 20th century has been the era of modern wars Underlying these wars has been the strong tendency of conflicting countries to compete for oil resources. Early in the next century, crude oil exploited by the United States, one of the biggest oil-producing countries, will dry up. Can anyone say that this will not affect the world and the competitive strategies of nations?

Written by Shinji Yagi