Ten billion East Indians or 2.2 billion Americans!?

One eu or ecological unit is 2,000 calories (kcal), the amount of energy a human being needs to ingest in a day. In fact, a world average of around 2,700 calories is supplied per day. Japanese get 2,900 calories and Americans get 3,600 calories.

At one time at the end of the eighteenth century, the English economist Malthus said that due to population increases food shortages would of necessity occur. In fact, up till now in spite of population increases the food supply has been all right. However, Malthus was not mistaken. This happened because advances in modern agricultural techniques, chiefly chemical fertilizers and mechanization, increased the yield for the same area of land.


The Ghost of Malthus

Today the world's population is said to be around six billion and increasing at the rate of eighty million more each year, so that it is said that by the middle of the next century it will reach 9.4 or 10 billion. On the other hand, we can no longer hope for huge increases in yield per acre due to new agricultural techniques and we have reached the limit in developing new agricultural land. In fact, the agricultural land available is decreasing due to global ecological problems and the deterioration of farm land and the changeover from agricultural to industrial use. Thus, we again hear of the ghost of Malthus, that a century of famine is approaching.

How many billion people can the world support? At present the world produces two billion tons of grain and 600 million tons of potatoes and catches almost 100 million tons of fish. Someone has made trial calculations that if all the people in the world lived like Americans do, only 2.2 billion people could eat, but if they live like the East Indians, ten billion could live. There are people who say that because we foresee a food shortage, the developing nations should enforce population control, but there is also the problem of distribution. Even today with ample supplies in the world on average, it is said that 800 million to 1.2 billion people are starving. It can be said that dividing the food supply up evenly is that difficult.


The Consequence of Epicurean Living

Forty percent of the world's grain is used as feed for animals. In other words it is eaten only after being changed into meat or dairy products. It is said that to produce one kilogram of good tasting meat, it takes eight kilograms of feed grain. We waste that much to have good food. It is a modern-day world-wide tendency that when people are prosperous they eat more protein. Japan in the past and China today both moved or are moving toward eating more meat.

However, I believe it is going too far to say that we should stop eating meat. Still, some reconsideration of our present-day over-fed eating habits is necessary. I wrote that Japanese get 2,900 calories, but this is the amount supplied. In fact what is eaten is only a little over 2,000 calories. The difference is thought to be what is thrown out in the process of distribution and in our homes. It is said that we Japanese throw out 30 million tons of leftovers a year. Even I myself, who have as my only principle that one should not leave even one grain of rice, feel helpless before the huge amount of leftovers at stand-up dinner parties.

While we may not have to worry about starvation, a time of food shortages will surely come. And for that day, it would be wise to preserve the simple feeling that some things are too much of a waste.

Population

Malthus explained in this book that the population increases in geometric progression, but that food production only increases in arithmetic progression so that food shortages are inevitable.

Animal Feed

Originally dairy and livestock raising were industries that were considerate of nature, turning prairie grass that could not be used in that form by humans into milk and meat. However, now it is definitely considered an enemy by environmentalists since the increase in feeding grain to animals for better tasting meat production and since the tropical rain forests have been cut down to supply cheap beef for hamburgers.

..being changed into...

Modern agriculture and fishing use huge quantities of energy in fuel for tractors and fishing boats and for hot house heating. They have been criticized for turning petroleum into food. According to The Effective Use of Energy in Our Daily Life, edited by the Science and Technology Agency's Resources Council, the amount of energy invested to produce food is, for beef (at 2,000 kcal/kg) and yellowtail cultivated in ponds, about five times, for rice 0.91 times, for cucumbers grown outdoors 9.1 times and for cucumbers grown in a hothouse 45.9 times. In the trial calculations used as a model, the energy invested in production is 3,300 calories per person per day.

Distribution

Large scale food aid is sent whenever there is a war or a natural disaster, but food is the basis of a culture and it will not suffice to send wheat and corn (maize) just anywhere.

Food shortages

We hope it will not happen, but there is the example of that neighboring country about which we have so little information. With domestic production of our food needs, in calories, at only 30 percent, Japan is one of the lowest in the world in this regard and is the largest importer of food in the world. Did you ever imagine that Japan imports more corn (maize) from overseas than the amount of rice it produces?

(Reference Data and TV Programs)
['98/99 World National Censuses Illustrated], Ed. Tsuneta Yano Memorial Society
World Resources 1998-1999, by the World Resource Institute
Vital Signs 1998-99, by the Worldwatch Institute
Worldwatch Papers 1997-98, by the Worldwatch Institute Center.
Beyond MalthusÅ\Ninteen Dimensions of the Population Challenge, by Lester Brown Close Up Today, NHK